AP09563188 "Scientific and methodological substantiation of the criteria for the outburst hazard of moraine-glacial lakes and the assessment of the degree of potential risk from their outbursts"


Moraine-glacial lakes are very dynamically developing natural objects. Their development is inextricably linked with the processes of shrinking glaciers and global warming. In modern conditions, the period from the emergence of a new lake to its breakthrough can be only 15-20 years. As a rule, dams of near-glacial lakes have a complex structure, including, in addition to stone material, moraines, underground and buried ice. The state of lake dams is crucial in shaping the risk of lake outbursts and mudflows.

Therefore, the development of criteria for the breakthrough danger of moraine-glacial lakes, the assessment of potential damage and methods for managing the risk of glacial mudflows is an urgent task in solving the problem of ensuring mudflow safety in the mountainous areas of the Almaty region.

Until now, there is a lack of information about the structure, composition, temperature regime and engineering-geological properties of lake dams. Such observations were previously carried out only on the Tuyuksu moraines. It is necessary to carry out engineering and geological studies on other types of lake cofferdams.

The regularities of the formation of intramoraine runoff channels and reservoirs have not been sufficiently studied, without which it is impossible to understand the mechanism of lake outbursts through intramoraine tunnels.

It is necessary to study the patterns of formation of near-glacial lakes under conditions of climate warming and degradation of glaciation in order to make a forecast of the danger of glacial mudflows in the near future, since there are opinions that a sharp increase in mudflow activity is possible. This may require a radical restructuring of mudflow protection schemes.

Objective of the project

Develop evidence-based criteria for the outburst hazard of moraine-glacial lakes and a methodology for assessing the degree of potential risk from their outburst.

Expected results:

- Criteria for outburst hazard of moraine-glacial lakes;

- Recommendations for carrying out reconnaissance work on moraine-glacial lakes;

- Methodology for assessing potential damage from the outburst of moraine-glacial lakes;

- Map of the distribution of moraine-glacial lakes in the mountainous regions of the Almaty region with a division according to the degree of potential risk of outburst of these lakes;

- Cadastre of moraine-glacial lakes;

- Passports of the most outburst-prone moraine-glacial lakes;

- Recommendations to reduce the risk of outburst of moraine-glacial lakes in the mountainous regions of Kazakhstan

Based on the results of the implementation of the scientific project for the entire period of the project:

- at least 1 (one) article published, accepted for publication or submitted to a peer-reviewed scientific publication included in the Science Citation Index Expanded or Social Science Citation Index in the Web of Science database and (or) with a CiteScore percentile in the Scopus database of at least 35 (thirty five).

Results achieved

The results obtained for determining the risk of lakes in mountainous areas can become the basis for planning water management activities and assessing potential damage from floods and mudflows. The scientific significance of the research lies in identifying the patterns of formation of glacial lakes, which can be used for other mountain-glacial regions.

Names and surnames of the study group members with their identifiers:

  1. Zapparov Medetkhan Rasilkhanovich - scientific adviser
  2. Auelkhan Yergali Satyshuly - Chief Researcher
  3. Kulbekova Sholpan - Junior Research Fellow

List of publications:

Zapparov M.R., Kasenov M.K., Auelkhan E.S ., Rajmbekova Zh.T., Abishev B.Zh. Main criteria defining glof risk on the territory of Almaty region, Izvestiya NAN RK, Seriya geologii i tekhnicheskikh nauk, #6, noyabr`-dekabr` 2021, 6 str., proczentil` zhurnala 40%, kvartil` zhurnala v Scopus: Q3.

Scientific projects of the university

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